Tim Michels: From late entry to primary victor in less than 4 months - Madison.com

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Tim Michels largely stayed out of the political limelight after his failed U.S. Senate run in 2004, but reemerged almost two decades later to defeat former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch, who had appeared to be the de facto frontrunner in the Republican primary for governor.

How did the millionaire co-owner of Brownsville-based construction company Michels Corp., who has painted himself as a political outsider despite his longstanding ties to some of the state’s biggest lobbying groups, defeat Kleefisch less than four months after joining the race? And how did he do it despite ultimately losing two of the state’s three largest GOP counties, which have traditionally played a pivotal role for Republicans in statewide races?

Two keys to Michels’ victory were the endorsement from former President Donald Trump and Michels’ own wealth, which allowed him to make the most of that endorsement, said UW-La Crosse political science professor Anthony Chergosky. Michels spent about $12 million — the most a gubernatorial candidate has spent in state history — including millions on television and online ads.

“Those two factors I think go a long way in explaining how the election turned out the way it did,” Chergosky said. “We are in extraordinary territory when we see a figure like Donald Trump leave office and still have such enormous influence over his party.”

Michels will face Democratic Gov. Tony Evers, who is seeking a second term, on Nov. 8 in a high-stakes midterm for both major parties that could have considerable implications on state policy for the next four years. Independent Joan Beglinger is also running in the general election.

Michels did not respond to requests for comment last week. But GOP strategist Bill McCoshen, who assisted Michels’ campaign, said an equally important factor in Michels’ victory was his ability to carve out a political outsider position that stood in contrast to Kleefisch, who served eight years under former Gov. Scott Walker and was backed by establishment Republicans such as former Vice President Mike Pence and Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, as well as Wisconsin Manufacturers and Commerce, the state’s largest business lobbying group.

While stumping for Michels days before Tuesday’s primary, Trump described Kleefisch as “the handpicked candidate of the failed establishment, the ‘RINOs’” — which stands for “Republican in name only,” a derogatory term for party members deemed insufficiently loyal.

“There was always a lane for an alternative,” McCoshen said. “What benefited Michels, in addition to the money, was he was an outsider. He hadn’t held a public office before. Yes he did run for one, but there’s a big difference between holding office and running for office.”

Since losing to Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold in 2004, Michels has largely focused on his family’s construction business and serving in leadership roles for various organizations, including WMC, the Wisconsin Transportation Builders Association and the Transportation Development Association.

McCoshen praised Kleefisch as a “good candidate” who “worked her tail off.”

“Outside of (former Gov.) Tommy Thompson, I’ve never seen a statewide candidate work harder than her,” he said. “I give her full credit for that. I think she got bad advice at several points and assumed that the outsider lane wasn’t as big as it was. It was big.”

Beneath the surface

In an interview with Wisconsin Right Now, a conservative online website that endorsed Kleefisch in the primary, Walker alleged that a group of GOP insiders, including lobbyists McCoshen and John Gard, the former Assembly speaker, actively sought out a candidate like Michels to challenge Kleefisch. Others, including McCoshen, Thompson and Madison businessman Eric Hovde, mulled a gubernatorial run earlier this year before all eventually opted out of the race. Business consultant Kevin Nicholson also ran as a political outsider but dropped out of the race about a month before the primary.

“It’s simple,” Walker told the outlet. “The lobbyists who wanted a gas tax increase were hunting for an alternative because they knew that I and Rebecca had fought against the gas tax.”

The topic of the gas tax became a repeated criticism raised by Kleefisch in debates and ads leading up to the primary, with the former lieutenant governor pointing to Michels’ previous leadership roles with lobbying groups that supported fuel tax increases. Michels called the claims “completely false” and attacks from “the corrupt establishment.”

McCoshen, who said he voted for Walker four times, described the former governor’s comments as “bizarre.”

“I thought it was un-gubernatorial and honestly it was only half right,” he added. “There was a lane for an alternative candidate all along, some people just refused to see it or hear it.”

‘Time to move on’

McCoshen said he met with Michels earlier this year, as he has with potential candidates for more than 30 years, but denied Walker’s allegations that he actively recruited Michels.

“Not one time did we talk about policy, and that was Walker’s whole charge, that we recruited him over the gas tax,” McCoshen said. “It’s a load of malarkey. It’s so fictional, but it’s time to put that behind us and move on. It never happened.”

Gard said Walker’s comments were “misleading and inaccurate,” adding, “but it was politics and I accept it.”

Gard, who served as Assembly speaker between 2003 and 2005, said Michels appealed to rural voters who are “not looking for the same old thing.” While Trump’s endorsement benefited Michels among rural voters, his backing from Thompson likely had the same impact in urban centers like Madison and Milwaukee.

“The results speak for themselves, it was pretty overwhelming,” Gard said. “And the guy was only running for four months.”

Walker declined to weigh in on the comments by Gard and McCoshen, but said Michels won due to Trump’s endorsement and his campaign spending.

WOW counties

As results started to trickle in Tuesday night, all eyes were on Wisconsin’s WOW counties of Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington, which wrap around Milwaukee and include the state’s largest concentration of Republican voters. As votes were reported, one thing was certain — Kleefisch was not securing the margins she needed in the Milwaukee suburbs.

“Everyone expected Michels to do well outstate, which he did,” McCoshen said. “He also appealed to conservative primary voters in southeast Wisconsin, which really prevented any path to victory for Kleefisch.”

In Waukesha County, for example, Kleefisch beat Michels by about 6 percentage points. In the 2018 U.S. Senate race, Republican state Sen. Leah Vukmir won the county by 37 points in her primary win that year, while U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz won the county by 39 points over Trump two years earlier in his 2016 presidential primary victory.

She also won Ozaukee County by about 5 points and Milwaukee County by about 4. Michels won Washington County by 9 points.

Ultimately, Kleefisch won 10 of the state’s 72 counties, including Waukesha and Ozaukee counties, as well as the counties of Marathon, Dane and Milwaukee, but only by single-digit margins. All others went to Michels.

While the vote totals are smaller in Wisconsin’s more rural counties, Michels won them handily, running up double-digit margins in several, securing more than 35,000 votes statewide, roughly 5 percentage points more than Kleefisch, according to preliminary results.

“(Michels) beat expectations and did better than he needed to do in the suburbs, but my goodness did he really run up the margins in those rural parts of the state,” Chergosky said.

Chergosky said Michels’ victory could underscore a “sea change in Republican Party politics” in the state.

“The traditional path to victory in a Republican primary is to focus on the Milwaukee suburbs and run up impressive vote totals in those parts of the state,” he added. “Michels did do well in those parts of the state, but it’s really the rural areas that made the difference for him.”

General election

While Trump’s endorsement certainly fired up Republicans in Tuesday’s primary, the former president’s backing comes with both benefits and risks for Michels as he pivots toward more moderate general election voters.

“The risks and rewards are off the charts for Tim Michels in having Donald Trump’s backing,” Chergosky said. “The risks are enormous because of the blowback he could get in pivotal suburbs and the motivating factor that Trump is for the Democratic Party. The rewards are tremendous because Donald Trump remains loved by Republicans and his rural base could be pivotal in this election.”

Speaking with reporters in Madison less than 12 hours after Michels’ victory, Evers took direct aim at his November challenger, noting that “Trump owns him. He is connected to Trump ... that’s his problem, that’s not mine.”

On the same day, Michels put out a new campaign ad tying Evers to President Joe Biden. The ad makes no mention of Trump. Speaking at Trump’s rally the Friday before the primary, Michels said “election integrity” was his “No. 1 priority,” but on Wednesday, he said “jobs and the economy are gonna be my No. 1 priority.”

Vos, who saw the power of Trump’s endorsement play out firsthand in his narrow victory Tuesday over longshot candidate Adam Steen, who was backed by Trump, said focusing too much on Biden or Trump may be a losing strategy.

“I’m hoping Mr. Michels, as he launches his campaign, focuses on the future and drawing the contrast between what he would do and what Gov. Evers has done,” Vos said.

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