Probably more questions than answers on the two tropical systems at this point, especially regarding intensity, and intensity impacts the future track.
Weaker systems favor a more Westward path easily influenced by prevailing low to mid level flow, while stronger systems favor a more Northerly and Easterly track as stronger systems can tap different steering currents in winds higher aloft.
As I always point out the science is poor at forecasting intensity but good on forecast paths most of the time, although beyond 3 days the error is high.
The amount of storm weakening wind shear is in question as Marco nears the coast, so having it weaken as much as models and official forecast currently projects is not a given but the NW Gulf is the more likely track for Marco with Laura more Central rather than either NW or East, but the options are vast as both systems will try to find the “weakness” between two ridges as shown in prior blog posts.
Big question mark remains on the ultimate future of Laura because recon aircraft are having trouble finding the true center of circulation and because the storm could pass over mountainous terrain and be shredded to a weak system, if not conditions for an intensity ramp-up will loom as possible as it nears the Gulf Coast.
We have our own tropical moisture in place across Georgia without the tropical cyclones as witness to recent strong storms and isolated flooding. That pattern looks to continue independently with or without any contribution from remnants of Laura by Friday or the weekend:
Atlanta National Weather Service Discussion:
If IF we end up with two hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico simultaneously it would be the first time on record. Right now odds are against it.
For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.
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August 22, 2020 at 11:18PM
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Two tropical cyclones to enter Gulf of Mexico - WSB Radio
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