There’s nowhere to go but up.
This is my fourth weekly entry in the FOX Bet Super 6 contest, typically held during FOX’s Thursday night games but this week pegged to the Tuesday nighter between the Dallas Cowboys and Baltimore Ravens on the network.
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In Week 10, I got two of the contest questions correct in the Indianapolis Colts-Tennessee Titans game but was oh, so close to being right on two more. In Week 11, I got only one right in the Arizona Cardinals-Seattle Seahawks matchup but again was just a few yards away from hitting on potentially another two or three. On Thanksgiving week, I was a total turkey. Zippo, and not even close in the Washington Football Team at the Dallas Cowboys.
There are two ways to approach a contest such as this. One is to simply wing it. The other, which I’ve been doing, is to research recent outcomes and play on probability. Last week’s whitewash notwithstanding, I stuck with that method for Cowboys-Ravens.
So here we go with the six contest questions …
1. What will be the last scoring play of the 1st half?
a) Cowboys TD
b) Cowboys FG
c) Ravens TD
d) Ravens FG
e) Any other score/No score
Field goal again was the clear winner in this category in Week 12, as 10 games saw a kick be the last scoring play of the first half. There were three passing touchdowns and three rushing touchdowns. In the four weeks I’ve charted this, it’s been a field goal 37 times out of 68 (54.4 percent). This game features two of the best long-range kickers in NFL history. Baltimore’s Justin Tucker is 10 of 11 from 40+ yards this season with a long of 55. Dallas’ Greg Zuerlein is 1 of 4 from 50+ yards but that make was a 59-yarder, plus he’s 9 of 9 from 40-49 yards. Game flow typically sets up for a long field goal at the end of the first half and you can’t go wrong with either guy. But to me, Tucker is the absolute best and I’ll go with him.
2. How will the first TD of the 3rd quarter be scored?
a) Cowboys passing
b) Cowboys rushing
c) Ravens passing
d) Ravens rushing
e) Any other TD/No TD
This was the strangest category when logging all of the games from last week. From the list above, the winner league-wide would have been “e) Any other TD/No TD” — and by a wide margin. Seven games saw no touchdowns scored in the third quarter — including the Cowboys-Washington and Ravens-Steelers games — and in three more, the first touchdown came on a defensive return. Just crazy. For this game, though, I’m thinking more mainstream. Both teams can break a deep pass with Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb for Dallas and Marquise “Hollywood” Brown for Baltimore. If Mark Andrews gets cleared from the COVID list, he is a good in-close option with six TD receptions on the season.
3. How many total rushing yards will there be by both teams?
a) Less than 240 yards
b) 240-255 yards
c) 256-260 yards
d) 261-265 yards
e) 266-270 yards
f) 271+ yards
This is the first time for this category in the four weeks I’ve played the contest. Last week, nine of the games saw less than 240 total rushing yards and four saw 271+ yards. To pick one of the other ranges is to really try to thread a needle. Looking at this matchup statistically the teams combine to rush for 269.4 yards and allow an average of 268 yards per game. If those numbers hold, we’re just a few yards from the open-ended high total. Figuring the Ravens will have some of their top runners back from the COVID list, that’s where I’m landing.
4. How many different players will score a TD in the game?
a) 0-2
b) 3
c) 4
d) 5
e) 6
f) 7+
This is a very tough one to tackle. I lost in the Titans-Colts contest when six different players scored the six touchdowns, and I was figuring Derrick Henry would get two. In last week’s Cowboys-Washington contest, Antonio Gibson stymied me when he hogged the glory and scored three times. So I’m going to try to attack it via my game handicap. I’ve already mentioned two excellent kickers and lots of rushing yards, which keep the clock running. This might be a game that sees only four or five touchdowns, so I’ll go with four total touchdown scorers (which also was the winner in Week 12 with seven hits in the 16 games).
5. Which team will have the most receiving yards and how many?
Cowboys:
a) 0 to 275
b) 276 to 285
c) 286 to 295
d) 296 to 305
e) 306 to 315
f) 316+
Ravens:
a) 0 to 275
b) 276 to 285
c) 286 to 295
d) 296 to 305
e) 306 to 315
f) 316+
Carrying that game handicap a bit further, though I picked a Ravens passing touchdown for the first score of the third quarter, I don’t see a lot of wholesale passing yards on either side in this matchup. I figure the Cowboys probably will be behind and should throw more so I’ll give it to them. In Week 12, 11 of the 16 games saw the team with more receiving yards come in at less than 275.
6. Who will win and by how many points?
Cowboys:
a) 1 to 2
b) 3 to 4
c) 5 to 6
d) 7 to 9
e) 10 to 14
f) 15+
Ravens:
a) 1 to 2
b) 3 to 4
c) 5 to 6
d) 7 to 9
e) 10 to 14
f) 15+
My selection in The Post’s Bettor’s Guide for this game was Cowboys +8.5. Given some of the scenarios I’ve laid out, I’m going to project a score that can help me run the table on all six categories. I’m going with Ravens 26, Cowboys 20.
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