The next hurricane of the 2021 season could form this weekend.
A tropical disturbance in the southern Caribbean Sea has organized faster than expected and is now forecast to become a tropical storm as early as Thursday night. The National Hurricane Center projects the storm will move between Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by the weekend.
The disturbance, soon to be Tropical Storm Ida, doesn’t pose an imminent threat to Florida. The storm’s forecast path has steadily moved east — putting it closer to Tampa Bay than initially expected — but still has it headed toward the Lousiana or Texas coasts.
Government meteorologists warn that the system’s projected path is especially uncertain because it hasn’t formed yet. Spectrum Bay News 9 Meteorologist Juli Marquez said the same Thursday morning.
“Nothing’s developed yet so it’s hard to say exactly where the impacts could be,” Marquez said. “The model guidance shows it staying west of Florida, but impacts to the northern gulf coast could be felt into Sunday, Monday and even Tuesday next week.”
Early models project the storm could become a “significant” hurricane after entering the Gulf of Mexico, Matthew Cappucci, a meteorologist for the Washington Post, said Thursday.
“Every major weather model is consistent in developing a potentially significant hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend,” Cappucci said in a tweet. “We’re becoming more confident that the northern Gulf really has to watch this. Storm has yet to develop but could be a big problem.”
The disturbance remained 200 miles south of Jamaica at 8 a.m. Thursday. Thunderstorms were expected as it approaches Cuba on Friday. It will pose a threat to Texas, Louisiana and northeastern Mexico later this weekend, potentially as a hurricane.
“This system could bring dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall to portions of the coasts of Louisiana, Texas, and the Mexican state of Tamaulipas late this weekend and early next week,” the Hurricane Center wrote in an advisory.
The center also was monitoring two other disturbances, both in the mid-Atlantic. One, about 650 miles southeast of Bermuda, has been given a 70 percent chance of development in the next five days but is expected to travel away from the United States.
The other disturbance, several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, has been given a 50 percent chance of development in the next five days as it moves west across the Atlantic.
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Tropical Storm Ida could form Thursday and enter Gulf of Mexico this weekend - Tampa Bay Times
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