If no post-Labor Day coronavirus surge, LA County could enter less risky recovery phase by October - LA Daily News

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Los Angeles County could move to the next, less risky tier of pandemic recovery by early October, if positive current trendlines hold, the county’s public health chief said on Wednesday, Sept. 16 — but only if Labor Day’s gatherings fail to fuel a COVID resurgence.

County officials announced 31 more deaths Wednesday, for a total 6,303 people lost to the six-month outbreak. Also logged were 1,148 new cases, for a total of 256,148.

Under the state’s four-tiered reopening criteria, the county of 10 million people remains in the “widespread” level. To move to the less dangerous “substantial” tier — which comes with fewer restrictions on businesses, schools and public activities — the county must log an average below seven daily cases per 100,000 people for two weeks, and it must show a positive case rate between 5% and 8%.

The county is good on the positivity rate, now at 3.2%, but the daily cases per capita level is a tick too high, at 8.1 daily cases per 100,000, Ferrer said Wednesday.

It’s a significant improvement from where the county stood mere weeks ago, when officials were were worried about surges propelled by Memorial Day and Fourth of July gatherings overwhelming the region’s hospital capacity.

“We do feel confident that efforts to slow the spread over the last months are, in fact, working,” Ferrer said.

If currents trends hold, Ferrer said, “we could enter Tier 2 … sometime in October.”

But it’s no slam dunk. It’s unclear if transmission drive by Labor Day weekend crowds will drive the numbers back up, because it takes up to 14 days for the virus to manifest itself.

If the holiday bump isn’t significant, the county could meet its tentative goal of reopening schools sometime in November.

In recent days, breweries and cardrooms have pushed the county to allow them reopen.

However — with more holidays upcoming, along with the seasonal flu’s arrival — officials on Wednesday warned that opening non-essential businesses remains too risky.

Researchers measure the rate of spread with a number called R. If it’s at 1, one person is capable of spreading to one person. But if it’s above 1, the rate of spread is exponential. If it’s below 1, spread falls much more rapidly. Right now, it’s at .95 — more hopeful than 1, but not good enough, yet, said Dr. Christina Ghaly, head of the county’s Department of Health Services.

“We’re still very much on the edge of moving in one direction or the other,” she said, urging people not to let up on getting tested, if needed, and getting vaccinated for the flu.

With test sites forced to shut down because of heat waves and the unhealthful air quality amid ongoing wildfires, coronavirus testing has dipped.

Ferrer said recent daily totals may be “artificially low,” but that trends were still moving in a positive direction.

The county’s mid-day report did not include the latest numbers from Long Beach and Pasadena, which operate their own health departments. Pasadena added no deaths to its total of 121, but added six new cases, for a total of 2,485. Long Beach reported two new deaths, for a total of 237, and 40 cases, for a total of 11,311.

Ferrer said she was troubled by a recent spike in the number of deaths among African Americans and the disease’s enduring impact on the Latino community.

“We’re watching this very, very closely,” she said.

Any easing of restrictions must take into account the impact that decision will have on communities hit hardest.

The Board of Supervisors on Tuesday allocated nearly $130 million in federal coronavirus relief funding.

All coronavirus relief dollars provided under the original federal bill must be spent by Dec. 30.

City News Service and the Associated Press contributed to this story.

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If no post-Labor Day coronavirus surge, LA County could enter less risky recovery phase by October - LA Daily News
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