Yet again, the Stars are at another checkpoint in a 2020-21 season that has repeatedly presented them with chances to turn around a campaign gone awry.
Beginning Tuesday night in Nashville, the Stars will start a six-game road trip that includes four games against teams they are chasing in the Central Division standings. Dallas plays the Predators, Hurricanes and Blackhawks twice each as they hope for some clarity ahead of April 12′s trade deadline.
“We know that time’s running out and we can’t take any longer to figure it out,” forward Blake Comeau said.
It seems like the Stars have been in this situation before this season: a pivotal stretch that could decide the route their season takes.
When they went to Florida and Tampa Bay for a four-game road trip in late February following a winless four-game home stand, it looked like the Panthers and Lightning could bury the Stars. Yet they still had enough cushion from the beginning of the season to survive.
When they had a six-game home stand against the ripe middle of the Central (Columbus, Nashville, Chicago) at the beginning of March, this seemed like the time the Stars could gain ground on the teams they were chasing. They picked up five of 12 points and watched as the Predators continued to struggle.
Even this most recent five-game home stand gave Dallas a chance to climb. But it went 1-2-2 and was saved by Chicago’s continued tumble. The Central Division’s general incompetence (outside Carolina, Tampa Bay and Florida) has kept the Stars season alive rather than the Stars themselves forcing the issue.
Now, the Stars reach this week, when they can no longer count on Nashville and Chicago losing to other teams. If the Stars are going to catch the Preds and Hawks, they will have to do so themselves, and they will have to be better than a 4-1 loss to Florida on Sunday night.
“You’ve heard me say many times that we’ve played a lot better than our record, and we have,” Stars coach Rick Bowness said Sunday night. “Tonight was one of the few games that I will sit here and say we did not deserve to win that game. That’s only happened a couple of times after the number of games that we’ve played.”
Bowness and the Stars have hoped that the team’s underlying game-driving numbers would translate to wins.
Believe it or not, Dallas entered Monday as one of the top play-driving teams at 5 on 5, according to Natural Stat Trick. It was sixth in shot attempt share (52.7%), fifth in shot share (52.9%), third in expected goals share (54.3%), third in scoring chances share (55.4%) and third in high-danger chances share (56.6%).
Those analytics suggest the Stars should be better than 11 wins in 32 games. The execution suggests otherwise, as the Stars rank 25th in the NHL in 5 on 5 shooting percentage. Finishing has been an issue across the last three seasons, as Dallas ranks last at 5 on 5 shooting percentage.
The result is a product that relies more and more on the power play to score, the penalty kill to stifle and the goaltending to hold up. Those three have not often combined concurrently.
“The style that we play, we play good defensive hockey, we grind teams down with the forecheck,” Comeau said. “We have to work hard for our goals. I feel like when our specialty teams are on, we’re a tough team to beat.”
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March 30, 2021 at 06:15AM
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Familiar territory: Stars enter another pivotal stretch that could determine their fate this season - The Dallas Morning News
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