After three-plus months of a dark-side news flow and committing every mistake in the PR playbook, baseball is finally about to rescue itself. Its opening act tonight will be a battle of titans: Washington Nationals vs. New York Yankees, Max Scherzer versus Gerrit Cole, the World Series champs against the sport's most popular team.
What's not to love?
It's the best outcome considering MLB was hurtling toward irrelevance only a few weeks ago. Now we'll find out if baseball has been forgiven for its trespasses. Commissioner Rob Manfred might still be the most unpopular man in professional sports, but give him credit: He knows when to slip out of sight.
He's being replaced by Scherzer and the Nats, who checked every box while winning America's affection in 2019: They took down the evil Astros, turned "Baby Shark" into a national anthem and did it all with older, likable players.
So what better foil than Cole and his trillion-dollar contract? OK, it's not quite Warren Buffett money, but the Yankees are paying dearly to win a World Series for the first time since 2009. Of course, the Los Angeles Dodgers have a chance to flatten everyone, Yankees and Nationals included, but it's Day 1. Scherzer-Cole is a billboard of baseball's rebirth. It's a litmus test for the next 60 games.
Depending on how you feel about sports during the pandemic, baseball is either brave or reckless to be playing at all in 2020. Critics say the shortened season is a joke, and the winner will be mocked or ignored, right?
Actually, no. MLB has done everything possible to keep itself alive under extraordinary conditions. A few players have opted out, which is their right, but most are all-in and deserve our respect. If baseball can complete all 60 games without disruption—a huge if, given the nation's surge in COVID-19—then the 2020 season will be remembered fondly. No asterisk here; the eventual World Series champ should be memorialized for perseverance.
Only, which club will be left standing? Remember, none of the usual metrics apply. It isn't talent alone that matters. It's available talent. Healthy talent. There's going to be a gap between the team on paper and the team that actually takes the field.
That's why the Yankees are generating so much buzz. Rival executives believe that, barring an unforeseen disaster, this will be the Bombers' year.
"Their depth chart is just ridiculous," is how one rival executive put it. The ease in which the Yankees took apart the New York Mets last weekend in a pair of exhibition games was telling, especially since the Mets were positioned to be one of the National League's elite clubs. Well, at least before they placed No. 2 starter Marcus Stroman on the injured list Wednesday with a muscle tear in his left calf. He could be out for weeks.
But the Yankees had too much firepower, too much pitching, too much of everything. The disclaimer? They didn't face Jacob deGrom, and the Mets aren't the Dodgers or the Nationals. But still.
Here's a look at the scenarios that'll allow the Yankees to run the table and, conversely, what could go wrong. In 2020, that could be anything.
What Needs to Go Right
Gerrit Cole Lives Up to Expectations
It didn't go unnoticed by the Yankees that their new ace absolutely destroyed them during intra-squad games. It wasn't so much Cole's arsenal that caught their attention; they'd faced him many times in the past. It was the white-hot intensity he brought even to summer camp.
"When I stepped in the box the first time, I tried to give him a little, 'Hey, G, how's it going?' He just looked right through me," Aaron Judge said to reporters via a Zoom call. "That shows you what type of competitor he is. He's the real deal."
As for actually trying to barrel up on Cole, the Yankees universally repeat the well-known scouting report: good luck.
"You can't sit there and try to guess what's coming because he'll have you 0-2 real quick," Luke Voit said via Zoom. "Or else you'll be in an uncomfortable count and have no idea what's coming."
There's no reason to think Cole will be anything but the superstar they're paying for. He looks ready to earn every dollar of his nine-year, $324 million contract.
Aaron Judge Stays Healthy
This is a significant narrative considering Judge missed a third of the action in the 2018 and 2019 seasons and would've started the originally scheduled 2020 Opening Day on the injured list as well. But the slugger's health issues seem to finally be behind him, as he slugged three home runs in two days against the Mets and Philadelphia Phillies.
Judge, who recovered from a fractured rib during the pandemic shutdown, did experience an unexplained stiff neck that forced him to miss four days of camp recently. But if timing means anything, Judge is pain-free when it counts most—right now, with the curtain about to go up in Washington.
Giancarlo Stanton Thrives in an Empty Stadium
If anyone could benefit from the silence of fanless venues, it's Stanton, who, unlike Judge, is still regarded as an out-of-towner by the Yankees fanbase.
Put it this way: When Judge whiffs four times in the Bronx, the fans boo the umps for expanding the strike zone on him. When Stanton takes the golden sombrero, he's the target of unprintable abuse.
The front office still believes in the trade that brought Stanton from Derek Jeter's Miami Marlins after the 2017 season. Brian Cashman was able to land the reigning National League MVP and get Miami to pay for part of his salary. To the GM, that was a slam dunk. Stanton has since won praise in the clubhouse for his work ethic and refusal to complain about the harsh treatment from fans.
Still, Stanton is only human. It'll be easier for him to relax and approach the 59 home run performance he put forth in 2017 without every at-bat turning into a referendum on his value to the Yankees.
Gary Sanchez Fires on All Cylinders
That means on offense and behind the plate. Sanchez has adopted a new defensive stance, dropping his right knee to the ground, which will theoretically make it easier to frame pitches in the lower half of the strike zone.
Sanchez will also do better with sinker-ballers like Zack Britton, which the Yankees hope will mean less carryover stress when he's in the batter's box. It looks like Gleyber Torres will slot in the three-hole between Judge and Stanton, allowing Torres a lower-profile role as the No. 6 hitter.
Manager Aaron Boone is betting Sanchez will pay a big dividend, and not only not for power, but also more frequent contact. The Yankees still think he can be as patient as he was in 2016, when he batted .299 and finished second in AL Rookie of the Year voting.
Sanchez has since turned into an all-or-nothing asset, with 105 home runs but more strikeouts (397) than hits (343) over the course of his career.
Beware the Power Station
The Yankees led the majors in runs and were second in home runs in 2019, and that was without Judge and Stanton for long stretches. Overall, they sent a record 30 different players to the injured list, resulting in the offseason dismissal of their strength and conditioning coach. When injury-free, the Bombers' lineup is a terrifying lineup for any pitcher. The offense alone could carry the Yanks to the postseason.
What Could Go Wrong
The Odds
We told you anything is possible in 2020, if only because a 60-game schedule throws all previous metrics out the window. FiveThirtyEight, for instance, says the best team wins the championship only 15 percent of the time over 60 games. A third-tier club could get hot and break Fox executives' hearts. Imagine the network's horror if the Marlins and Detroit Tigers end up in the World Series.
Baseball Prospectus offered a similar warning. While acknowledging the Yankees' enormous skill, they nevertheless lowered the Bombers' chances of winning the AL East from 90 percent before the pandemic to just 72 percent at present.
Cole Hates the Empty Stadium
Just as Stanton figures to benefit from the stillness in the Bronx, Cole could go the other way. That's the risk of signing an adrenaline junkie and then asking him for two months of masterpieces with no one around.
Of course it's possible, if not probable, that Cole find another source of stimulation. But it'll have to be an unprecedented workaround.
Judge Gets Hurt (Again)
The Yankees shudder to think of their clubhouse leader going back to the IL. There's nothing they'd like more than a productive 60-game sprint from Judge, which would likely lead to a long-term contract over the winter.
But health has unfortunately been an issue for Judge since his rookie season. His recent stiff neck, while fully resolved, means the Yankees can't just assume the slugger will have an uninterrupted season. He has to prove it.
Gio Urshela Runs into a Year-After Slump
The soft-spoken Colombian was a pleasant surprise in 2019, coming out of nowhere to hit .314 with 21 home runs and 74 RBI. Given that Urshela had never come close to those numbers in three invisible years with the Cleveland Indians and Toronto Blue Jays, the Yankees have every right to ask whether Urshela is for real.
Luckily, they have a backup option in Miguel Andujar, who has recovered from a torn labrum and is looking for an everyday role. He spent some time in left field during summer camp and will be first in line for Urshela's job at third base should there be a drop-off.
Regression in the Starting Rotation
Signing Cole became even more critical after Luis Severino underwent Tommy John surgery in the spring. His absence amplifies some of the lingering questions about the rest of the rotation, which was already stripped of Domingo German's 18 wins (the right-hander is serving a 63-game domestic violence suspension).
So, what about Masahiro Tanaka—is he fully recovered from a concussion after being struck by Stanton's 112 mph line drive during batting practice? Is 37-year-old J.A. Happ, whose ERA jumped up to 4.91 last year, still reliable enough to serve as the No. 3 starter until Tanaka returns?
These verdicts are coming soon.
So, what's the bigger picture look like?
In any other year, the Yankees would be regarded as fire-breathers about to inflict major damage on the American League.
But today, who knows? That's the mystery of baseball in 2020. We're all in the dark.
And what a beautiful proposition it is, too—anything goes.
Predictions
Yankees' Regular-Season Record: 39-21
AL East: 1st place
AL Playoffs: AL Pennant winners
World Series: 4-2 over the Dodgers.
Cy Young: Gerrit Cole
MVP: Gleyber Torres
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July 23, 2020 at 06:00PM
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Yankees Enter MLB Opening Day as Favorites—But Can They Win the World Series? - Bleacher Report
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