NORTH CAROLINA — Nearly two weeks ago Governor Roy Cooper announced his plans to reopen the state in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. Cooper announced a 3-phase plan that could begin as early as Friday if statistics trend downward.
Following the lead of other states, Cooper announced several restrictions in late March with Executive Order 121 that required residents to stay home as much as possible and ordered the closing of nonessential businesses. By this Friday we will know if the Department of Health and Human Services (NCDHHS) is recommending the governor begin loosening restrictions and allow the state to enter ‘phase one’ of the reopening plan.
Last week Cooper said he was hopeful that the state could move into the first phase sometime this week.
“North Carolinians have made tremendous sacrifices and it is making a difference,” Cooper said at the time. “We remain hopeful that the trends will be stable enough to move into Phase 1 next week.”
What will it take?
In late April Cooper, along with NCDHHS Secretary Mandy Cohen, explained the three phases of reopening the state, and what it will take to get us there.
There are four metrics that the state is tracking in order to determine whether or not to reopen the state. These metrics include; Covid-like syndromic cases over 14 days; lab-confirmed tests; positive tests as a percentage of total tests; and hospitalization over 14 days.
If these metrics are all starting to trend downward, the state can begin loosening restrictions.
The first metric is simply the number of cases of illnesses that are reported by doctors as Covid-like but no test is completed on the patient to confirm or deny the presence of the virus.
The second metric is the actual number of lab-confirmed tests, but because the state has ramped up its testing efforts its is reasonable to believe that as more tests are conducted the number of positive cases will increase.
That is why the third metric is in place. It is the percentage of positive tests compared to the number of tests conducted. Essentially, even if there is an increase in positive tests compared to the number of people being tested the virus could actually be trending downward.
Finally, the number of hospitalizations will be a deciding factor in Cooper’s decision, since, these strict efforts have been implemented across the nation to mainly ensure hospitals are both overwhelmed with Covid-19 cases.
Where we are now
As of Tuesday at 11 a.m., there are 12,256 positive cases of Covid-19 across the state (with cases in all but one of 100 counties). There have been 146,439 tests completed and 452 deaths due to the virus and 534 people are in the hospital due to the virus.
In terms of the four metric trends, compared to the past two years this year emergency doctors are reporting higher than normal visits for illnesses with Covid-like symptoms. As of the week ending April 25, the number of cases for the first key metric was on the rise.
There were multiple points for this metric provided by the NCDHHS for that week (note: the week ending May 3 is the last data provided by the state as these numbers are updated weekly).
- Fewer people than normal are seeking care in North Carolina emergency departments.
- Emergency department visits for fever/respiratory illness (COVID-like illness) are higher than normal for this time of year.
- During the week ending May 3, 2020, emergency department visits for COVID-like illness increased in most areas of the state.
As expected with the number of tests conducted increasing, the number of positive cases does appear to be on the rise, or possibly leveling off, according to state data.
However, as previously mentioned, the state is also taking the percentage of tests conducted and comparing them to the number of positive cases to determine the true trends of the virus’s spread.
According to this data, North Carolina does appear to have a downward trajectory in this category.
The final category, number of hospitalizations does not trend as well for the state. Overall, the number of people in the hospital due to Covid-19 appears to be trending upward consistently, however, it is important to note that people are in the hospital for days at a time with this virus so the numbers will reflect that.
Phase one, what will it look like?
Regardless of when Cooper decides to enter phase one of the reopening, the changes in day-to-day life will be somewhat similar to what they are now, with a few changes.
The stay-at-home order will still be in effect but people will be permitted to leave their homes for commercial activity. In layman’s terms, this means so-called nonessential retail stores will be permitted to reopen.
Stores will need to implement more strict cleaning requirements and they will be required to operate at a reduced capacity. This means stores that are currently closed or only offering online ordering can begin to reopen, but places like restaurants and bars will still remain closed for dine-in service. It’s also likely that under Phase I regulations service industry businesses like nail and hair salons, tattoo and massage parlors, and other similar businesses will remain closed. Governor Cooper is expected to add some detail on Tuesday evening.
Since the data is still lagging behind due to the time it takes to collect specimens and test them, it might not be until later this week that the state announces trends for the past week and a half.
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